In 1906, most infantry had completed the transition from late-19th-century black powder rifles. America and most other nations had smokeless powder. By 1894, American troops had replaced their black powder rifles with a smokeless powder model (the Krag-Jorgensen). The modern machine gun was invented in 1883, but armies took about two decades to adopt it widely. Most artillery was still short-ranged, inaccurate, and could only fire at targets the crew could see. Horses pulled or carried supplies, and infantry marched long distances when they were not moved by railroad or steamship. Modern, quick-firing artillery had recently been introduced and remained unproven in battle. Communication still relied on the telegraph, an 1840s invention that, within a few decades, revolutionized how commanders communicated over long distances. They could now do it in minutes. This was a big change for warfare. Very big. At this time, telephones were all local and not portable. Cavalry was still important for scouting, although less useful for charging infantry, a trend that began when infantry got muskets with bayonets two centuries earlier.

By 1936, 30 years of unprecedented changes had an enormous impact on warfare. This was largely because the Industrial Revolution was unleashing even more new technology in much less time. This process continues at an increasing rate. By then, all troops had smokeless-powder rifles. This made the infantry much more lethal and made the modern sniper possible. These new rifles, many of which are still in use, fired faster, more accurately, without a cloud of smoke, and were far more effective than many 1906 models. The modern machine gun had arrived, and every infantry battalion had many. Some even carried light machine guns. Artillery was much more accurate and capable due to hydraulic recoil systems. Armies were beginning to use trucks to replace horses, a process that would take another half century to complete.

Aircraft were now available, proving to be the perfect scouts, able to see what distant enemy troops were up to. Wireless telegraphy (radio) also revolutionized warfare more than the telegraph. This was especially true at sea. Ships were no longer out of touch with their governments for long periods. On land, armies now rapidly laid temporary telephone lines in the field. The critical problem was that the major armies had not figured out exactly what to do with this new technology. This produced years of stalemate and millions of casualties in World War I (1914-18). But that conflict also saw the development of chemical weapons, assault rifles, paratroopers, and tanks. Nothing speeds up weapons development like a major war. In the early 1920s, military experts were still trying to figure out what to do with all this new stuff.

By 1966, the enormous changes of World War I had been overtaken by even more dramatic technological advances of the1939-45 World War II. By 1954, nearly all major military technologies of the 20th century were in place. This included electronic warfare, smart bombs, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, wire-guided missiles, antibiotics (which greatly reduced the death rate in combat), modern assault rifles, radar, aircraft carriers, modern sonar, portable radios, modern body armor, a large variety of armored vehicles, jet aircraft, portable anti-tank rocket launchers, commandos, operations research, heavy bombers, computers, self-guided torpedoes, bottom mines, land mines, chemical warfare, nuclear weapons, and much more. The transformation was more dramatic than anything in history. In less than a century, warfare became unrecognizable to any pre-20th-century soldier. While 19th-century soldiers would be recognizable to someone from the 16th century when firearms were introduced, change had been relatively slow for those three centuries. Military and political leaders now had to deal with the speed of change, as well as the changes themselves. It was an entirely new situation in human history.

Thus, 1906, compared with 1936 and 1966, saw less dramatic change. This was principally due to one new technology: nuclear weapons. The nukes discouraged wars between the major powers. Without a major war to spur rapid military-technology development, new military tech developed much more slowly and at a higher cost. By 1996, many World War II technologies had been perfected or at least made cheaper and more reliable.

There were some new developments. Guided missiles, night vision devices, spy satellites, laser rangefinders, weapons guidance systems, large drones, remote sensors, ICBMs, SLBMs, composite armor, stealth aircraft, nuclear submarines, all-weather aircraft navigation systems, miniaturized electronics, heat sensors, and more. Basically, all the neat new stuff from World War II was now smaller, cheaper, deadlier, and more reliable. But the biggest change had not been noted until the 1973 Arab Israeli War. During that conflict, the speed at which modern weapons and other systems could destroy the enemy and accelerate combat shocked generals everywhere. From there, everyone began to ponder how this transformation would change the way wars were fought.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, there was an unprecedented amount of innovation. This is what happens when forces from two comparably industrialized nations fight each other. The Korean, Vietnam, and Middle Eastern wars were relatively low-tech compared to Ukraine, where the defender was backed by NATO while Russia could only depend on meager support from North Korea, Iran, and China. Ukraine saw the evolution of drone warfare, in which these inexpensive weapons, flown by operators many kilometers to the rear, turned the combat zone into a nightmarish environment where movement had to be slow and stealthy to avoid the ever-present death from above. The Ukrainians adapted by developing ground combat drones. That and other innovations meant that for every Ukrainian casualty there were eight or more Russian losses. Russia is losing in Ukraine, but the Russian leadership has not come up with an adequate, for the Russian people, explanation for this sorry situation.

In 2026, radical new technologies like GPS, the Internet, bulletproof body armor, drones, combat robots, and personal, extremely portable computers transformed warfare more than anyone expected. World War II technologies continued to mature, especially when combined with later technologies like miniature computers. Improvements in communications and night-vision sensors made it possible to operate around the clock and attack with greater accuracy and deadly effect. Speed had always been a powerful weapon, but now it meant moving quickly anywhere on the planet and striking with enormous firepower. That was seen dramatically in Afghanistan in late 2001. World War II's maturing technologies had become a form of warfare with unheard-of speed and destructive power. While a 2026 infantryman would have looked like one from 1936, weapons and equipment had changed dramatically. Pundits claimed that the war on terror foiled a lot of this new tech, but the terrorists had the same impact that irregular forces had had in the past. Even the roadside bombs were nothing new, and their use by the Islamic terrorists was an admission of defeat, not a clever counter to military tech.

So, what does this mean for 2056? Faster and deadlier for sure. By then, information war will be more than a buzzword because better sensors and data-processing technology will make situational awareness (knowing where you and your enemy are, knowing it first, and acting before the other guy does) more decisive than ever.

If the expected breakthrough in batteries (fuel cells) evolves as reliably and cheaply as expected, the 2050s infantryman will be something of a cyborg. Beyond carrying several computers and sensor systems, he might wear body armor that also provides air conditioning. Satellite communications, of course, and two-way video. Exoskeletons are already in the works and may mature by then. Much depends on breakthroughs in battery tech, though engineers are also finding ways to do more with less juice. Historians tend to underestimate the cleverness of engineers and inventors.

But the big new development will be the continued evolution of robotic weapons. The World War II acoustic torpedo, used by the Germans and the Allies from subs as well as the air, was the first truly robotic weapon. You launched it, and it hunted down its prey and attacked. There may be a lot of public uproar over land-based systems with sensors that can hunt and weapons that can be used without human intervention. But those systems will be easy and cheap to build by 2056, and as soon as one nation builds them, others will have to follow. By 2056, machines will fight other machines more often than they look for stray humans on the battlefield.

But other developments will be harder to anticipate. In 1906, most of the 1936 technologies were already known in theory. The same was true for the 1966 technologies in 1936, and so on. What's hardest to predict is exactly how new tech will be used. Imagination and ingenuity will be involved, and that sort of thing is, by its very nature, resistant to prediction.

James F Dunnigan